Jokowi Diprediksi SMRC Jadi Presiden 2 Periode Ikuti Jejak SBY

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Jokowi Diprediksi SMRC Jadi Presiden 2 Periode Ikuti Jejak SBY

Liputan46 – Djayadi Hanan selaku Direktur Eksekutif Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) melihat bahwa Joko Widodo (Jokowi) berpeluang terpilih kembali sebagai Presiden dalam Pilpres 2019. Hasil survei SMRC yang terbaru menunjukkan tren perolehan suara responden bagi Jokowi lebih unggul dibandingkan pesaingnya yakni Prabowo Subianto.

Survei tersebut dilakukan sekitar 1220 responden yang tersebar di sejumlah wilayah tanggal 7-14 September 2018. Hasilnya menunjukkan angka perolehan Jokowi senilai 60,2 persen, sementara Prabowo sebanyak 28,7 persen.

Survei sendiri dilakukan dengan mewawancarai responden. Margin eror 3,05 persen dimana tingkat kepercayaan 95 persen. Hasil survei itu juga berbanding lurus pada survei bulan Mei 2018. Saat itu dukungan responden terhadap Jokowi yakni sekitar 57 persen sementara untuk Prabowo sekitar 33 persen.

Djayadi menuturkan, tren perolehan suara ini penting dijadikan indikasi hasil akhir saat hari pencoblosan. Djayadi menyoroti keadaan politik saat ini hampir sama saat menjelang pemilu 2009. Ketikas itu Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) yang menjadi petahana juga mempunyai perolehan suara yang selalu lebih unggul dibandingkan lawan-lawan politiknya.

Menjadi petahana, SBY kembali terpilih menjadi presiden 2009-2014. Yang membedakan dimana perolehan suara responden Jokowi saat ini lebih tinggi dibandingkan perolehan suara responden oleh SBY ketika itu.

Mengacu dari data jelang pemilu 2009 yang dilakukan oleh Lembaga Survei Indonesia, perolehan SBY dalam survei terakhir yang dilakukan beberapa bulan jelang pemilihan yaitu sebesar 48,6 persen. Sementara saat ini, Jokowi mendapatkan sekitar 60,2 persen.

Meski demikian, masih ada beberapa bulan sampai pemilu 2019. Angka perolehan Jokowi ini masih dapat berubah, tergantung terhadap isu politik yang bergulir nantinya. Contohnya terkait isu ekonomi.

Menurutnya, isu ekonomi adalah salah satu isu fundamental yang juga dapat mempengaruhi persepsi publik atas petahana. Karena itulah bila langkah-langkah atau kebijakan yang diambil Jokowi tidak tepat, maka akan mempengaruhi hasil dalam pemilu 2019 nanti.

Elektabilitas Jokowi hingga kini masih unggul dibandingkan Prabowo berdasar beberapa lembaga survei. Survei LSI Denny JA, contohnya, menunjukkan elektabilitas pasangan Jokowi-Ma’ruf sebesar 52,2 persen. Pada survei yang dilakukan 12 Agustus-19 Agustus 2018 tersebut, Prabowo-Sandiaga cuma mendapatkan 29,5 persen. Sementara itu, 18,3 persen responden masih merahasiakan pilihannya.

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